A year after my 2007 predictions - the score card
1 January 2008
So last year, I made six predictions for 2007. How did I do?
1. 3D effects
In 2007, almost every distribution of a Linux operating system ('distro') will have to think about how they incorporate 3D effects into their releases.
Well that came true, all the major desktop distros now have 3D effects, though there are some hardware combinations that do not work, also the details changed slightly because Beryl became part of Compiz-Fusion. However, overall, this prediction came to pass.
2. Open Source Java
By the end of 2007, Linux distributions will begin to come with a Sun Java runtime by default.
This (more or less) came true. Fedora 8 came with IcedTea, which is the code from Sun's OpenJDK with a few extra bits to plug the remaining holes in OpenJDK. Sun and the open source community are replacing the small remaining parts of Java that are not open source, i.e. parts of the JDK that Sun licenced from other companies such as the audio midi synthesizer. All Java development is now done in a public Mercurial repository. Well done to Sun there and well done to the Linux distributions. So this one also came true.
3. Flash on Linux
I predicted that before any Flash 10 came out, either Gnash would have complete Flash 9 support or Adobe would make a move on open-sourcing its Linux Flash player. None of these have happened within 2007 so I was jumping the gun it seems. On the bright side, Gnash does support Flash video sites such as YouTube pretty well. But fair is fair, I lost this one.
4. Wireless
In 2007, I predict Wireless will become a non-problem on Linux.
That was a slightly dumb prediction as it is somewhat subjective. Certainly it is no longer the problem it once was a few years ago:
- NetworkManager is in most of the distros, providing a standard and easy-to-use graphical interface making setting up a wireless connection a breeze.
- WPA and other more advanced encryption set-ups are now fully supported.
- Most wireless cards are supported somehow, though there are some firmware blobs and suchlike.
- The new unified wireless support stack went into the kernel in 2.6.22 in July. This is the focus of wireless support development on Linux.
- Many of the major manufacturers of wireless chips are actively supporting Linux driver development with documentation and/or cash.
So things are looking pretty bright for wireless on Linux. Not everything is 100% perfect, but the way ahead seems pretty clear. So I am counting this prediction as correct.
5. Media codecs
I predict the situation will not get any better in 2007.
Okay so it got a little better in that distros like Ubuntu and Fedora provide one click install of some media codecs uder certain conditions. However, media codec support is still a huge big steaming pile of mess. So I am counting this prediction as correct.
6. Windows Vista
In the Windows world, 2007 will be the year of Vista.
Okay, I lost that one, Vista bombed. More on that shortly.
Total Score - 4/6
Well overall I scored four correct, Vista was completely wrong and nothing much changed with Flash on Linux. When you are just making stuff up, having most of it come to pass is not bad, although perhaps my predictions were a bit too dull and safe?
Will I do better this next year? Well I plan on being more aggressive/speculative with my predictions so probably not!
1 Gene Venable says...
Vista had a HUGE effect on me! It inspired me to delete Windows from my main desktop computer and switch entirely to Linux.
Posted at 11:56 a.m. on April 1, 2008
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