2008 Predictions - ODF and OpenMoko
2 January 2008
This post is part of a series where I try to make outlandish predictions for 2008. `Read the introduction for more details.`_
1. ODF becomes the default file format for Europe
Previously most European governments have not had a thought out policy on how they keep their electronic data before, in 2007 this changed and now they all feel the need to have one. So I predict that 2008 will see a raft of such policies.
Many governments are ahead of the game and have already outlined policies on open document standards. These include Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia, as well as parts of the German and Finnish governments, Vienna and Bristol councils. All these are based on the ISO approved ODF standard.
A lot is riding on whether OOXML is accepted or rejected as an ISO standard. If OOXML is rejected then ODF's ISO certification becomes a killer feature and it will sweep the board in Europe.
If OOXML is approved then all bets are off, as if it is approved, then it will be the result of politics and blatant vote rigging rather than technical merits. If this is the case then ISO itself might not even survive in its current form. ISO would have to do something to remove the stench of corruption, a good first step would be to standardise how national bodies work so this shambles is not repeated again.
2. The OpenMoko project will release their phone
The OpenMoko FIC Neo1973 is the most exciting phone project I've seen, indeed one of the most exciting embedded devices I've seen in a while.
Like all projects that involve hardware, it has been a slow build up, the hardware has been held up by the external component manufacturers as well as working out a new legal framework for the GSM module. The Neo1973 will be the time anyone anywhere has made a mobile phone with user upgradeable GSM firmware.
The phone will be mostly free of binary blobs, so getting or writing GPL drivers for the hardware has been a key part of the challenge. However, a couple of small firmware/userspace driver blobs will remain such as in the GPS and GSM, at least in the short term. But make no mistake, this is one of the freest embedded devices we have seen, and no other phone comes anywhere near.
Production started with several internal prototypes, the phone sold to embedded developers as 'phase 1' was the 4th or 5th hardware revision ('spin') called GTA01Bv4.
So far they have also had four revisions of GTA02, and expect at least one more before 'phase 2', when they will sell the phone again, this time it will be to a slightly larger group of open source developers and enthusiasts.
Barring problems, they are planning that the eventual mass market release will have the same hardware as GTA02, though they are expecting the software to change significantly as the open source community gets to work on it.
Compared to GTA01, GTA02 has more flash memory, a graphics accelerator, wifi, a higher amp battery and a now working GPS chip.
My favorite feature is that it will also have a powered USB port (yay!), the holy grail in embedded systems where most have unpowered USB. Powered USB allows you to plug other USB devices into the embedded system, rather than unpowered USB which only allows you to plug the system into a PC.
Whether the phone comes out early 2008 or late 2008 is anyone's guess.
I also guess that in 2008, Apple will release a second revision of the iPhone. With these embedded devices, you have to basically have to be willing to upgrade every year if you want to stay with the latest and greatest.
1 Zeth says...
So it looks like phone formally known as the Openmoko 1973 will become the Openmoko FreeRunner. I'll have to think about whether the name is better. (When you get a text message, it will go beep beep?)
Here is the this mailing list announcement.
Posted at 9:48 p.m. on January 4, 2008